Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 1 Jan 2024

Liverpool
4-2 HT 0-0
Newcastle United
📅01/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Liverpool vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.74
Over 2.5
60%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.62
2-3 Goals
38%
2.14
4-5 Goals
28%
2.51
6+ Goals
15%
5.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.63
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
18.15
X/1
25%
3.82
X/2
6%
14.85
X/X
7%
8.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.8
2/2
9%
9.85
2/X
8%
18.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.8 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.5pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.4pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
33%
+7.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
67%
-7.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.9pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
2.17/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.55
+17% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +18%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
474 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 77%
35.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
23.1 Crosses 16.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Liverpool vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.95 xG 1.04
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
525 Passes 262
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
37 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-2 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
18.02.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-2 HT 0-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
31.08.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
30.04.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
16.12.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 3-1 HT 2-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
24.04.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
4-2
AWAY Newcastle United
7.11 xG 0.60
62% Ball Possession 38%
34 Total Shots 5
15 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
471 Passes 264
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
68 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool got the better of Newcastle United 4-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Liverpool had 62% of the ball to Newcastle United's 38%, shots finished 34-5, expected goals 7.11 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Liverpool and 0.67 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 57%, draw 23%, Newcastle United 20%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →