Vitoria ES 2-3 Real Noroeste — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 1 Feb 2024

📅01/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
Over Pick
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
49%
4-5
23%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
13%
2/2
11%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria ES The Market 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Noroeste The Market 25%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.14/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/0.70
-33% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +149%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
378 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria ES
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Real Noroeste
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.07.2023 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 2-0 HT 1-0 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste BRE4
20.05.2023 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRE4
04.03.2023 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 2-0 HT 2-0 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste BRCAP
05.05.2022 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRCAP
28.04.2022 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 0-0 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste BRCAP
05.02.2022 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 1-0 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRCAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria ES
2-3
AWAY Real Noroeste
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Noroeste edged past Vitoria ES 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria ES at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Vitoria ES had 54% of the ball to Real Noroeste's 46%, shots finished 10-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria ES had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vitoria ES and 0.33 for Real Noroeste.

What was the final score of Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste?

Vitoria ES 2-3 Real Noroeste in the Brazil - Capixaba on 01/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria ES win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Vitoria ES 51%, draw 24%, Real Noroeste 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vitoria ES) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria ES) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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