Guarani FC 2-3 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A1, 1 Feb 2024

📅01/02/2024 · 🕒03:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
27%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
Over 2.5
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
5%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
66%
-18.2pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.5pp
27%
Away Win
15%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 18%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -17%
2.00/0.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.53
+13% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
Crosses 16.2
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guarani FC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Mirassol FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.72 xG 0.71
45% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 348
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
29.06.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
18.03.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
04.02.2022 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BRPL1
13.05.2021 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
31.01.2020 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guarani FC
2-3
AWAY Mirassol FC
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
367 Passes 412
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Guarani FC vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mirassol FC nicked a narrow win over Guarani FC 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Guarani FC at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guarani FC had 48% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 52%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mirassol FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Guarani FC and 0.83 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Guarani FC vs Mirassol FC?

Guarani FC 2-3 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Paulista A1 on 01/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guarani FC vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guarani FC win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Guarani FC 48%, draw 25%, Mirassol FC 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guarani FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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