Lazio 0-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 1 Mar 2024

Lazio
0-1 HT 0-0
Milan
📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
18.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 28.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.07
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
7%
6.78
X/2
14%
4.72
X/X
16%
4.19
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.02
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.5pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.24/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.16
+15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
15.9 Crosses 16.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Milan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.07 xG 1.89
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
428 Passes 421
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 27
8 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
06.05.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
24.01.2023 Lazio Lazio 4-0 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
24.04.2022 Lazio Lazio 1-2 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
09.02.2022 Milan Milan 4-0 HT 3-0 Lazio Lazio İTK
12.09.2021 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
0-1
AWAY Milan
1.33 xG 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
251 Passes 453
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
15 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan edged past Lazio 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 30% / 40%) promised a tight game; Milan found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lazio had 38% of the ball to Milan's 62%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.33 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lazio and 2.00 for Milan.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Milan?

Lazio 0-1 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lazio 30%, draw 30%, Milan 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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