Freiburg 2-2 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Mar 2024

Freiburg
2-2 HT 1-1
Bayern Münih
📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Freiburg vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.71
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
44%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.96
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.77
6+ Goals
17%
7.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.45
1/2
8%
19.9
1/X
9%
16.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
12.0
X/2
11%
3.88
X/X
8%
6.83
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.84
2/X
8%
16.35
Value flag · X/1 at 12.0 — our 15% vs market 5.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
18%
+13.6pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.3pp
44%
Away Win
61%
-16.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.4pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 66%
+14% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -24%
1.05/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.31/1.24
+1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -28%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 79%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.4
15.7 Crosses 17.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Freiburg vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.70 xG 2.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
242 Passes 576
72% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 46
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.04.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
04.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AFK
16.10.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
02.04.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-4 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
06.11.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-1 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Freiburg 2-2 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
2-2
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.52 xG 1.81
38% Ball Possession 62%
17 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
305 Passes 537
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 46
16 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg and Bayern Münih couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 38% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 62%, shots finished 17-20, expected goals 1.52 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Freiburg and 2.67 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Bayern Münih?

Freiburg 2-2 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 32%, draw 24%, Bayern Münih 44%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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