Macarthur 2-0 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒12:28 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.61
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.41
No
43%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.04
2-3 Goals
36%
2.07
4-5 Goals
27%
2.57
6+ Goals
18%
5.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.99
1/2
6%
21.45
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
13%
6.83
X/2
9%
5.36
X/X
14%
6.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
2/2
23%
2.86
2/X
4%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
33%
+4.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-5.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.2pp
43%
BTTS No
33%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 48%
+12% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -23%
1.67/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.67
+19% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
372 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 84%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
22.1 Crosses 18.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.32 xG 2.25
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
264 Passes 514
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 39
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-3 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
19.03.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
04.02.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 6-1 HT 3-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
26.03.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
09.03.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-1 HT 2-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
20.06.2021 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-0 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
2-0
AWAY Melbourne City
0.91 xG 1.36
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 15
287 Passes 378
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 31
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur saw off Melbourne City 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Macarthur made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Macarthur had 45% of the ball to Melbourne City's 55%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 0.91 to 1.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured Melbourne City.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Macarthur and 2.67 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Melbourne City?

Macarthur 2-0 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 38%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 38%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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