Macarthur vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Macarthur v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals
Macarthur vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-3
HT 0-0
Macarthur
AVUS
1-1
HT 1-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
6-1
HT 3-0
Macarthur
AVUS
0-1
HT 0-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
3-1
HT 2-1
Macarthur
AVUS
2-0
HT 0-0
Macarthur
AVUS
Macarthur 2-0 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur saw off Melbourne City 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Macarthur made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Macarthur had 45% of the ball to Melbourne City's 55%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 0.91 to 1.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured Melbourne City.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Macarthur and 2.67 for Melbourne City.
What was the final score of Macarthur vs Melbourne City?
Macarthur 2-0 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Melbourne City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 38%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 38%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.