Sumqayıt 1-3 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 1 Mar 2024

Sumqayıt
1-3 HT 0-1
Kapaz
📅01/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2023/2024

Sumqayıt vs Kapaz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.74
Over 2.5
39%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.4pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.7pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
54%
+7.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
46%
-7.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sumqayıt v Kapaz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 30%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.02/0.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.21
-19% / +133% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0

Sumqayıt vs Kapaz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sumqayıt
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.12.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-1 HT 1-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
08.10.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 1-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
29.04.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 0-1 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
25.02.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 1-2 HT 0-2 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.12.2022 Kapaz Kapaz 0-1 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
23.11.2022 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 1-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERK
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapaz beat Sumqayıt 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sumqayıt at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sumqayıt had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sumqayıt and 0.67 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs Kapaz?

Sumqayıt 1-3 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sumqayıt win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 42%, draw 32%, Kapaz 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sumqayıt) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →