Independiente Medellin 1-0 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒03:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.4pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 23%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -24%
1.27/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.41
+4% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
17.1 Crosses 11.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.23 xG 0.62
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
372 Passes 243
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
27.10.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
18.08.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 3-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
10.08.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOLK
14.05.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
01.12.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
06.11.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.94 xG 1.41
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 9
413 Passes 202
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin edged past Deportivo Pasto 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 63% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 37%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.94 to 1.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Deportivo Pasto.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.67 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?

Independiente Medellin 1-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 47%, draw 30%, Deportivo Pasto 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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