Cerro 2-3 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +21%
0.68/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.07
-45% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Progreso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2022 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
07.02.2021 Cerro Cerro 2-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
16.08.2020 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 2-0 Cerro Cerro URU
03.11.2019 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
2-3
AWAY Progreso
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Cerro vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso edged past Cerro 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Progreso found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro had 36% of the ball to Progreso's 64%, shots finished 9-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cerro and 1.00 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Cerro vs Progreso?

Cerro 2-3 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerro 40%, draw 29%, Progreso 31%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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