Villarreal 1-2 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 1 Apr 2024

Villarreal
1-2 HT 0-1
Atletico Madrid
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.78
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
11%
6.99
X/2
13%
4.82
X/X
11%
4.98
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
19%
2.83
2/X
9%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 49%
+9% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.81/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.10
+22% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 81%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
14.9 Crosses 14.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.42 xG 1.73
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
478 Passes 343
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
04.06.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.08.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
09.01.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
29.08.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
28.02.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Villarreal 1-2 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
1-2
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.81 xG 1.32
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 3
440 Passes 406
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid edged past Villarreal 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Atletico Madrid made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Villarreal had 52% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 48%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.81 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Villarreal and 1.83 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?

Villarreal 1-2 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 33%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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