Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 1 Apr 2025

Arminia Bielefeld
2-1 HT 2-1
Bayer Leverkusen
📅01/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2024/2025

Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.18
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
62%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
27%
2.9
6+ Goals
12%
7.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.88 — our 23% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
15.35
1/2
10%
21.5
1/X
8%
23.75
X/1
5%
18.1
X/2
27%
3.85
X/X
7%
7.87
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
25%
1.54
2/X
6%
20.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Bayer Leverkusen win — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
11%
+6.2pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.3pp
61%
Away Win
71%
-9.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arminia Bielefeld v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 75%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -14%
1.52/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/0.80
+150% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
218 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 550 · 85%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.3
13.0 Crosses 22.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.64 xG 2.18
29% Ball Possession 71%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
214 Passes 637
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 38
8 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.02.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL1
03.10.2021 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
14.03.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 HT 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL1
21.11.2020 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
24.09.2013 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK
31.10.2012 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK

Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
2-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.40 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
227 Passes 242
63% Pass Accuracy 63%
20 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld nicked a narrow win over Bayer Leverkusen 2-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayer Leverkusen at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 48% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 52%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.40 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 2.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - DFB Cup on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 17%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 61%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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