Dunkerque 2-4 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 1 Apr 2025

Dunkerque
2-4 HT 2-1
PSG
📅01/04/2025 · 🕒22:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Cup – 2025/2026

Dunkerque vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
12.23
Draw
19%
8.11
Away
63%
1.1
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
3.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
8.49
2-3 Goals
32%
2.4
4-5 Goals
31%
2.34
6+ Goals
14%
3.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 8.49 — our 23% vs market 7.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
35.0
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
4%
35.0
X/1
6%
35.0
X/2
16%
4.08
X/X
8%
15.15
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
40%
1.15
2/X
7%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
PSG win — 63% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
5%
+13.2pp
19%
Draw
9%
+9.8pp
63%
Away Win
86%
-23.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
24%
+15.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
76%
-15.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dunkerque v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 91%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +103% / +35%
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
254 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 544 · 86%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.3
– Crosses 16.1
– Yellow Cards 1.8

Dunkerque 2-4 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
2-4
AWAY PSG
1.13 xG 1.62
24% Ball Possession 76%
11 Total Shots 30
3 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 14
170 Passes 680
71% Pass Accuracy 92%
20 Box Touches 54
10 Crosses 35
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG saw off Dunkerque 4-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Dunkerque had 24% of the ball to PSG's 76%, shots finished 11-30, expected goals 1.13 to 1.62.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs PSG?

Dunkerque 2-4 PSG in the France - Cup on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 18%, draw 19%, PSG 63%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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