Smorgon 0-0 Dnepr Mogilev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 28% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+5.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Dnepr Mogilev EU Bookmakers 40%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
0.98/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.03
-26% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Dnepr Mogilev
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
26.07.2014 Smorgon Smorgon 0-2 HT 0-1 Dnepr Mogilev Dnepr Mogilev BLRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
0-0
AWAY Dnepr Mogilev
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Dnepr Mogilev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon and Dnepr Mogilev played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Smorgon had 56% of the ball to Dnepr Mogilev's 44%, shots finished 11-9.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Dnepr Mogilev?

Smorgon 0-0 Dnepr Mogilev in the Belarus - Premier League on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Dnepr Mogilev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smorgon win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 40%, draw 27%, Dnepr Mogilev 34%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Smorgon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Smorgon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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