Libertad 2-3 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
48%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.86
Over 2.5
39%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.7pp
31%
Draw
24%
+7.1pp
48%
Away Win
58%
-9.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
50%
+10.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
50%
-10.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 62%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.02/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.87
+11% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -25%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
241 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
17.4 Crosses 20.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-1D-4L
AWAY LDU Quito
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.09 xG 1.94
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
218 Passes 356
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
03.06.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 4-2 HT 1-2 Libertad Libertad EKV1
18.11.2011 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
04.11.2011 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad CON CSA
26.08.2009 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
12.08.2009 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-3
AWAY LDU Quito
1.97 xG 0.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
241 Passes 177
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LDU Quito edged past Libertad 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had LDU Quito as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 57% of the ball to LDU Quito's 43%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.97 to 0.55 — on chances, Libertad could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Libertad and 1.50 for LDU Quito.

What was the final score of Libertad vs LDU Quito?

Libertad 2-3 LDU Quito in the Ecuador - Premier on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated an LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Libertad 21%, draw 31%, LDU Quito 48%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (LDU Quito) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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