ES Tunis 1-1 CS Sfaxien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.38
Over 2.5
38%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
3.08
No
70%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.94
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
15%
6.99
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-7.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+4.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
69%
-7.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
31%
+7.2pp
30%
BTTS Yes
28%
+1.2pp
70%
BTTS No
72%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY CS Sfaxien EU Bookmakers 14%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.52/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.30/1.08
+6% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Tunis
3W-2D-1L
AWAY CS Sfaxien
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
3.13 xG 0.19
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
558 Passes 145
88% Pass Accuracy 61%
41 Box Touches 7
38 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.12.2023 ES Tunis ES Tunis 1-0 HT 1-0 CS Sfaxien CS Sfaxien TUN1B
24.09.2023 CS Sfaxien CS Sfaxien 0-1 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN1B
02.08.2023 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-0 HT 0-0 CS Sfaxien CS Sfaxien AŞMPL
24.06.2023 ES Tunis ES Tunis 1-0 HT 1-0 CS Sfaxien CS Sfaxien TUN1
03.05.2023 CS Sfaxien CS Sfaxien 1-0 HT 1-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN
18.01.2023 CS Sfaxien CS Sfaxien 1-1 HT 0-1 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN1A
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ES Tunis
1-1
AWAY CS Sfaxien
63% Ball Possession 37%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ES Tunis vs CS Sfaxien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Tunis and CS Sfaxien shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had ES Tunis at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (70%) missed.

On the day, ES Tunis had 63% of the ball to CS Sfaxien's 37%, shots finished 7-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ES Tunis had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for ES Tunis and 0.33 for CS Sfaxien.

What was the final score of ES Tunis vs CS Sfaxien?

ES Tunis 1-1 CS Sfaxien in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Tunis vs CS Sfaxien?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Tunis win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split ES Tunis 55%, draw 29%, CS Sfaxien 16%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (ES Tunis), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ES Tunis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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