Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 1 May 2025

📅01/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.6
Over
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.49
2-3
43%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.56
6+
9%
24.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.2
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.65
X/1
14%
4.85
X/2
11%
6.77
X/X
11%
3.95
2/1
11%
30.5
2/2
16%
5.36
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
43%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United The Market 32%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.83/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.62
+71% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
43.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
44.6 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Manchester United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 0.69
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
255 Passes 462
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 32
7 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
06.08.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 1-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao HAZ
15.03.2012 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United AVL
08.03.2012 Manchester United Manchester United 2-3 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
0-3
AWAY Manchester United
1.11 xG 2.55
27% Ball Possession 73%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
161 Passes 563
71% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United ran out comfortable winners over Athletic Bilbao 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 27% of the ball to Manchester United's 73%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.11 to 2.55.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.33 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United?

Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Manchester United in the UEFA Europa League on 01/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 41%, draw 27%, Manchester United 31%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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