Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 1 Jun 2024

Borussia Dortmund
0-2 HT 0-0
Real Madrid
📅01/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Champions League – 2023/2024

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.15
Over Pick
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
27%
4.18
2-3
33%
1.86
4-5
26%
3.03
6+
14%
9.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.35
1/2 ✗
9%
21.35
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
9%
8.88
X/2
18%
4.15
X/X
12%
5.7
2/1
7%
40.5
2/2
22%
2.24
2/X
6%
14.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.35 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
26%
Home Win
22%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
49%
Away Win
54%
-4.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund The Market 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 58%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.15/2.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/1.27
-29% / +101% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 83%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
9.3 Crosses 20.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.52 xG 2.96
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
450 Passes 494
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 37
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.12.2017 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-2 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
26.09.2017 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-3 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
07.12.2016 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-2 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
27.09.2016 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
08.04.2014 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 2-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid ŞMP
02.04.2014 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP

Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
0-2
AWAY Real Madrid
2.08 xG 1.13
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 8
345 Passes 503
86% Pass Accuracy 92%
23 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid got the better of Borussia Dortmund 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 43% of the ball to Real Madrid's 57%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.08 to 1.13 — on chances, Borussia Dortmund could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.17 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid?

Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Real Madrid in the Champions League on 01/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 26%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 49%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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