Gagra 1-3 Samgurali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
39%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
25%
+9.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
39%
Away Win
48%
-9.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gagra EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Samgurali EU Bookmakers 52%
+16% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.38/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.93
+30% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
266 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gagra
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Samgurali
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2024 Samgurali Samgurali 2-0 HT 2-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
30.03.2024 Gagra Gagra 0-0 HT 0-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
02.10.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 2-2 HT 0-1 Gagra Gagra GUR
05.08.2023 Gagra Gagra 0-0 HT 0-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
22.07.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 3-0 HT 0-0 Gagra Gagra GURCK
26.04.2023 Samgurali Samgurali 1-0 HT 0-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gagra
1-3
AWAY Samgurali
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gagra vs Samgurali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samgurali got the better of Gagra 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Samgurali found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gagra had 47% of the ball to Samgurali's 53%, shots finished 19-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Samgurali led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Gagra and 1.33 for Samgurali.

What was the final score of Gagra vs Samgurali?

Gagra 1-3 Samgurali in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gagra vs Samgurali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Samgurali win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gagra 34%, draw 27%, Samgurali 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samgurali) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Samgurali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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