UPDF 1-0 Wakiso Giants — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.59
Over 2.5
35%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
1.96
No
67%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
46%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
14%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-4.8pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.3pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.0pp
33%
BTTS Yes
47%
-13.4pp
67%
BTTS No
53%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Wakiso Giants EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.98/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.28
-14% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Wakiso Giants
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
15.03.2022 UPDF UPDF 0-1 HT 0-0 Wakiso Giants Wakiso Giants UGA
11.12.2021 Wakiso Giants Wakiso Giants 1-0 HT 1-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
1-0
AWAY Wakiso Giants
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Wakiso Giants
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF squeezed past Wakiso Giants 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 32% / 35%) promised a tight game; UPDF found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (67%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, UPDF had 41% of the ball to Wakiso Giants's 59%, shots finished 8-3.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Wakiso Giants led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for UPDF and 1.00 for Wakiso Giants.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Wakiso Giants?

UPDF 1-0 Wakiso Giants in the Uganda - Premier League on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Wakiso Giants?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wakiso Giants win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split UPDF 33%, draw 32%, Wakiso Giants 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Wakiso Giants) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wakiso Giants) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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