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Western United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Western United (K) v Wellington Phoenix (K) — Team-Based Signals
Western United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
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3-1
HT 2-0
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Western United (K)
AVUSTW
Western United (K) 4-2 Wellington Phoenix (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Western United (K) got the better of Wellington Phoenix (K) 4-2. Half-time: 4-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Western United (K) as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Western United (K) had 40% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix (K)'s 60%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.69 to 2.15.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Western United (K) and 1.50 for Wellington Phoenix (K).
What was the final score of Western United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?
Western United (K) 4-2 Wellington Phoenix (K) in the Australia - W-League on 01/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Western United (K) vs Wellington Phoenix (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Western United (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Western United (K) 55%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix (K) 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.