Falkirk 3-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 1 Nov 2025

Falkirk
3-1 HT 3-0
Kilmarnock
📅01/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2025/2026

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.45
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 30% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.79
X/2
10%
7.11
X/X
14%
4.86
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
15%
5.2
2/X
4%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Falkirk v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Falkirk EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.25/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.28
+11% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 72%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
25.4 Crosses 23.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Falkirk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
The Meetings
04.09.2021 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 3-1 HT 1-1 Falkirk Falkirk İKCK
06.10.2020 Falkirk Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKLK
22.05.2016 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 4-0 HT 2-0 Falkirk Falkirk İKCL
19.05.2016 Falkirk Falkirk 1-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKCL
08.05.2010 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 Falkirk Falkirk İKP
10.02.2010 Falkirk Falkirk 0-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP

Falkirk 3-1 Kilmarnock — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Falkirk
3-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
2.07 xG 0.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
262 Passes 262
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
10 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Falkirk got the better of Kilmarnock 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Falkirk as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Falkirk had 49% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 51%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.07 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Falkirk and 1.33 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Falkirk 3-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Falkirk win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Falkirk 44%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Falkirk), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Falkirk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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