Neftçi PFK 5-1 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 1 Nov 2025

📅01/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.33
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
11%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
15%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
70%
+1.1pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.0pp
11%
Away Win
11%
-0.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 14%
-6% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.89/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.22
-11% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -14%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
400 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
04.05.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
05.03.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
28.02.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERK
05.02.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
15.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-1 HT 2-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.10.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 4-3 HT 3-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK swept aside Kapaz 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.33 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Neftçi PFK 5-1 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 01/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 71%, draw 18%, Kapaz 11%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Over 2.5
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
1 Nov 2025
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