Mainz 05 2-0 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 25% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
13%
5.25
X/2
5%
8.43
X/X
15%
5.53
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
14%
5.82
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -11%
1.50/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.72
-22% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.0 Crosses 17.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.58
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
256 Passes 402
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 4-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
26.11.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.03.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
10.09.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-1 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
05.02.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
11.09.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
2-0
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.38 xG 0.44
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
324 Passes 305
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 saw off Hoffenheim 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 52% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 48%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.38 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.00 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Hoffenheim?

Mainz 05 2-0 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 46%, draw 29%, Hoffenheim 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05)
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