Milan 4-1 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 2 Jan 2024

Milan
4-1 HT 2-0
Cagliari
📅02/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2023/2024

Milan vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 26% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.07
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.9
X/1
14%
3.94
X/2
7%
9.97
X/X
14%
5.57
2/1
9%
21.75
2/2
9%
7.46
2/X
7%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 23%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.37/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.29/1.33
-39% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -89% / +57%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
413 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
41.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
32.5 Crosses 10.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Milan vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cagliari
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.15 xG 0.83
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
492 Passes 287
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.09.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 1-3 HT 1-2 Milan Milan İTA
19.03.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
29.08.2021 Milan Milan 4-1 HT 4-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
16.05.2021 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
18.01.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 0-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
01.08.2020 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA

Milan 4-1 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
4-1
AWAY Cagliari
1.80 xG 0.56
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
502 Passes 300
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Milan vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan swept aside Cagliari 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Milan had 61% of the ball to Cagliari's 39%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.80 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Milan and 0.33 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Milan vs Cagliari?

Milan 4-1 Cagliari in the Italy - Cup on 02/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Milan 51%, draw 27%, Cagliari 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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