Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lecce v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals
Lecce vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 2-0
Lecce
İTA
1-0
HT 1-0
Lecce
İTA
1-1
HT 1-0
Fiorentina
İTA
1-3
HT 0-3
Fiorentina
İTA
0-1
HT 0-0
Lecce
İTA
0-1
HT 0-1
Fiorentina
İTA
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics
Lecce nicked a narrow win over Fiorentina 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Lecce made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lecce had 44% of the ball to Fiorentina's 56%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.62 to 1.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lecce's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lecce and 1.33 for Fiorentina.
What was the final score of Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lecce 35%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 40%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.