Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.48
6+ Goals
8%
23.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 34% vs market 32.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.15
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
16%
6.6
X/2
20%
4.62
X/X
14%
3.87
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
13%
3.1
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.0pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 46%
-13% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.19/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.09
-18% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
282 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
24.0 Crosses 20.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Fiorentina
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.71 xG 1.37
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
258 Passes 406
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 2-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
19.03.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
17.10.2022 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
15.07.2020 Lecce Lecce 1-3 HT 0-3 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
30.11.2019 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
05.05.2012 Lecce Lecce 0-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
3-2
AWAY Fiorentina
2.62 xG 1.12
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
232 Passes 317
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce nicked a narrow win over Fiorentina 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Lecce made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lecce had 44% of the ball to Fiorentina's 56%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.62 to 1.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lecce's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lecce and 1.33 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Fiorentina?

Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lecce 35%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 40%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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