Palermo 3-0 FC Bari 1908 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.8
Over Pick
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.14
2-3
39%
1.76
4-5
23%
3.7
6+
10%
15.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
20%
4.0
X/2
9%
9.25
X/X
17%
4.65
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
11%
7.37
2/X
4%
15.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 24%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.35/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.37
-21% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +42%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
25.4 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
2W-4D-0L
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.61 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 Passes 342
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
18.08.2023 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
20.01.2023 Palermo Palermo 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTB
19.08.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 1-1 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
24.04.2022 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-2 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTC
19.12.2021 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTC
18.04.2021 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 2-2 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
3-0
AWAY FC Bari 1908
1.56 xG 0.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 8
291 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palermo vs FC Bari 1908
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palermo cruised past FC Bari 1908 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palermo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Palermo had 49% of the ball to FC Bari 1908's 51%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.56 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palermo had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Palermo and 0.50 for FC Bari 1908.

What was the final score of Palermo vs FC Bari 1908?

Palermo 3-0 FC Bari 1908 in the Italy - Serie B on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs FC Bari 1908?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Palermo 47%, draw 27%, FC Bari 1908 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palermo), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Over 2.5
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