Novorizontino 2-0 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A1, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.57
Draw
34%
3.45
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
35%
-5.0pp
34%
Draw
26%
+7.8pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 43%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.77/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/0.93
-5% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +21%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
23.0 Crosses 15.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Ituano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.78 xG 0.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 Passes 294
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
20.05.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-2 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
20.08.2022 Ituano Ituano 1-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
08.05.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-1 HT 1-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
27.01.2022 Ituano Ituano 2-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
07.08.2021 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BRE3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
2-0
AWAY Ituano
39% Ball Possession 61%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
211 Passes 383
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino saw off Ituano 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 34% / 36%) promised a tight game; Novorizontino found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Novorizontino had 39% of the ball to Ituano's 61%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novorizontino had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Novorizontino and 0.67 for Ituano.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Ituano?

Novorizontino 2-0 Ituano in the Brazil - Paulista A1 on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 30%, draw 34%, Ituano 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ituano), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ituano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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