MTK Budapest 3-0 Ujpest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 28% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ujpest EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.31/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.49
-45% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
375 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
10.3 Crosses 20.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Ujpest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.51 xG 2.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
253 Passes 490
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 26
6 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 0-2 HT 0-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
03.04.2022 Ujpest Ujpest 2-0 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
05.12.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-1 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
22.08.2021 Ujpest Ujpest 1-2 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
24.04.2021 Ujpest Ujpest 1-3 HT 1-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
06.02.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-3 HT 1-3 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
3-0
AWAY Ujpest
1.87 xG 1.02
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 1
343 Passes 471
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Ujpest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest swept aside Ujpest 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had MTK Budapest as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 45% of the ball to Ujpest's 55%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.87 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for MTK Budapest and 1.33 for Ujpest.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Ujpest?

MTK Budapest 3-0 Ujpest in the Hungary - NB I on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Ujpest?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 42%, draw 27%, Ujpest 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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