Sogdiana Jizzax 1-2 Neftchi Fargona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Özbekistan - PFL, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
Over 2.5
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
30%
+7.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
44%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sogdiana Jizzax EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftchi Fargona EU Bookmakers 48%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-55% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
246 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sogdiana Jizzax
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Neftchi Fargona
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2023 Neftchi Fargona Neftchi Fargona 0-0 HT 0-0 Sogdiana Jizzax Sogdiana Jizzax ÖZB
18.03.2022 Neftchi Fargona Neftchi Fargona 1-2 HT 0-2 Sogdiana Jizzax Sogdiana Jizzax ÖZB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sogdiana Jizzax
1-2
AWAY Neftchi Fargona
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Sogdiana Jizzax vs Neftchi Fargona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftchi Fargona squeezed past Sogdiana Jizzax 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Neftchi Fargona found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sogdiana Jizzax had 58% of the ball to Neftchi Fargona's 42%, shots finished 14-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sogdiana Jizzax had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sogdiana Jizzax and 0.50 for Neftchi Fargona.

What was the final score of Sogdiana Jizzax vs Neftchi Fargona?

Sogdiana Jizzax 1-2 Neftchi Fargona in the Özbekistan - PFL on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sogdiana Jizzax vs Neftchi Fargona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sogdiana Jizzax win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sogdiana Jizzax 38%, draw 27%, Neftchi Fargona 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sogdiana Jizzax) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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