Paranoa 2-1 Real Futebol Clube — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Brasiliense, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.11
Draw
25%
8.11
Away
15%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
Over
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
20%
2-3
38%
4-5
31%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Paranoa win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
60%
Home Win
85%
-24.8pp
25%
Draw
9%
+15.2pp
15%
Away Win
6%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paranoa The Market 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Futebol Clube The Market 8%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.59/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.41
-37% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +65%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
490 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paranoa
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Real Futebol Clube
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 4
01.04.2023 Real Futebol Clube 1-1 HT 0-0 Paranoa Paranoa BRBR
25.03.2023 Paranoa Paranoa 1-1 HT 0-1 Real Futebol Clube BRBR
11.03.2023 Paranoa Paranoa 1-3 HT 1-1 Real Futebol Clube BRBR
POST-MATCH Paranoa vs Real Futebol Clube
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paranoa squeezed past Real Futebol Clube 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Paranoa as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Real Futebol Clube led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Paranoa and 1.67 for Real Futebol Clube.

What was the final score of Paranoa vs Real Futebol Clube?

Paranoa 2-1 Real Futebol Clube in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paranoa vs Real Futebol Clube?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paranoa win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Paranoa 60%, draw 25%, Real Futebol Clube 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paranoa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paranoa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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