Novo Hamburgo vs Caxias Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Novo Hamburgo v Caxias — Team-Based Signals
Novo Hamburgo vs Caxias Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Novo Hamburgo 0-1 Caxias — Actual Match Statistics
Caxias squeezed past Novo Hamburgo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Novo Hamburgo at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.
On the day, Novo Hamburgo had 51% of the ball to Caxias's 49%, shots finished 7-6.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Caxias led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Novo Hamburgo and 1.60 for Caxias.
What was the final score of Novo Hamburgo vs Caxias?
Novo Hamburgo 0-1 Caxias in the Brazil - Gaucho 1 on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Novo Hamburgo vs Caxias?
Before kick-off our model rated a Novo Hamburgo win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Novo Hamburgo 62%, draw 20%, Caxias 18%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Novo Hamburgo) went the other way.