Banga Gargzdai 1-1 Kauno Zalgiris — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
54%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
17%
+6.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
54%
Away Win
59%
-4.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.5pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Banga Gargzdai EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 62%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +15%
0.55/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/0.75
-51% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +45%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
221 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Banga Gargzdai
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-1 HT 1-1 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
18.07.2023 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 1-1 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
28.05.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 0-0 HT 0-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
09.04.2023 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-2 HT 0-2 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
29.10.2022 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-0 HT 1-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
04.09.2022 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-1 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
POST-MATCH Banga Gargzdai vs Kauno Zalgiris
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Banga Gargzdai and Kauno Zalgiris couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Kauno Zalgiris at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Banga Gargzdai and 1.67 for Kauno Zalgiris.

What was the final score of Banga Gargzdai vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Banga Gargzdai 1-1 Kauno Zalgiris in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Banga Gargzdai vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Banga Gargzdai 24%, draw 23%, Kauno Zalgiris 54%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✗ BTTS No
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