02/03/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
3-1
Heimstetten vs Erlbach Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
24%
Draw
26%
28%
Away Win
26%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Heimstetten v Erlbach — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Heimstetten
EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY
Erlbach
EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
55%
Ball Possession
45%
13
Total Shots
10
9
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
5
368 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
319 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Heimstetten vs Erlbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Erlbach squeezed past Heimstetten 2-1 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Heimstetten at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Heimstetten vs Erlbach?
Heimstetten 1-2 Erlbach in the Germany - Oberliga on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Heimstetten vs Erlbach?
Before kick-off our model rated a Heimstetten win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Heimstetten 48%, draw 24%, Erlbach 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heimstetten) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Heimstetten)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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OBER
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