Backa Topola 1-3 Kızılyıldız — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.4
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
30%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
15%
+10.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.9pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-13.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Kızılyıldız EU Bookmakers 69%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.28/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/0.88
+59% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +17%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
243 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
14.4 Crosses 19.5
3.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Kızılyıldız
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.06 xG 1.99
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
305 Passes 399
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 51
11 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 1-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
17.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-3 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRBK
22.04.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 4-1 HT 1-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
07.03.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-2 HT 0-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
04.09.2022 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 1-1 HT 1-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
06.04.2022 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 4-0 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRBK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-3
AWAY Kızılyıldız
0.83 xG 2.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
277 Passes 315
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Kızılyıldız
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kızılyıldız got the better of Backa Topola 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kızılyıldız as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Backa Topola had 47% of the ball to Kızılyıldız's 53%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.83 to 2.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kızılyıldız led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Backa Topola and 2.50 for Kızılyıldız.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Kızılyıldız?

Backa Topola 1-3 Kızılyıldız in the Serbia - Super League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Kızılyıldız?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kızılyıldız win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 25%, draw 24%, Kızılyıldız 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kızılyıldız), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kızılyıldız) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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