Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portsmouth v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Portsmouth vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Portsmouth
İN1
1-1
HT 0-1
Portsmouth
İN1
0-0
HT 0-0
Derby County
İN1
2-1
HT 0-0
Derby County
İNLK
1-2
HT 0-1
Derby County
İNCL
3-1
HT 3-0
Portsmouth
İNCL
Portsmouth 2-2 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Portsmouth and Derby County couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Portsmouth had 70% of the ball to Derby County's 30%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.84 to 0.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Portsmouth and 1.33 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Portsmouth 2-2 Derby County in the England - 1st Division on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Portsmouth win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 38%, draw 27%, Derby County 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.