Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Richards Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 2 Apr 2024

📅02/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 32% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.1pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.4pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Richards Bay EU Bookmakers 18%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.67/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.16
+26% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +45%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
415 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 70%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
16.5 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Richards Bay
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.41 xG 0.95
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
532 Passes 244
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
36 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.08.2023 Richards Bay Richards Bay 0-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
07.02.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-2 HT 1-1 Richards Bay Richards Bay GAF8K
06.01.2023 Richards Bay Richards Bay 0-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
04.02.2022 Richards Bay Richards Bay 0-4 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
1-0
AWAY Richards Bay
0.73 xG 0.10
78% Ball Possession 22%
13 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
582 Passes 102
89% Pass Accuracy 58%
22 Box Touches 6
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns edged past Richards Bay 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 78% of the ball to Richards Bay's 22%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 0.73 to 0.10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.50 for Richards Bay.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?

Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 Richards Bay in the South Afrika - Premier League on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 56%, draw 24%, Richards Bay 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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