Novi Pazar 3-4 Backa Topola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 2 Apr 2024

📅02/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 45%
+29% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -10%
1.46/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.87
+40% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
254 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
19.8 Crosses 19.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novi Pazar
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Backa Topola
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.55 xG 1.68
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
198 Passes 376
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
04.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-0 HT 2-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
05.02.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
06.08.2022 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
05.11.2021 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-1 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
17.07.2021 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-0 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novi Pazar
3-4
AWAY Backa Topola
1.08 xG 2.07
56% Ball Possession 44%
5 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
413 Passes 328
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola squeezed past Novi Pazar 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novi Pazar had 56% of the ball to Backa Topola's 44%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 1.08 to 2.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Novi Pazar and 1.50 for Backa Topola.

What was the final score of Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola?

Novi Pazar 3-4 Backa Topola in the Serbia - Super League on 02/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola?

Before kick-off our model rated an Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Novi Pazar 30%, draw 28%, Backa Topola 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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