Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Wisla Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Super Cup, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
27%
3.8
6+ Goals
10%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.53
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.75
X/1
12%
4.28
X/2
10%
8.12
X/X
7%
4.73
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
15%
6.68
2/X
7%
15.95
Value flag · 1/X at 14.75 — our 10% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Wisla Krakow EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Wisla Krakow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
282 Passes 323
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
23 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.05.2022 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.11.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 HT 1-1 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow POL
07.02.2021 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow 2-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
24.08.2020 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-1 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow POL
08.02.2020 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow 3-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
23.08.2019 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 HT 2-1 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-0
AWAY Wisla Krakow
1.57 xG 1.38
12 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 10
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok squeezed past Wisla Krakow 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, shots finished 12-23, expected goals 1.57 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.50 for Wisla Krakow.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Krakow?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Wisla Krakow in the Poland - Super Cup on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Wisla Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 43%, draw 24%, Wisla Krakow 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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