Kaizer Chiefs 1-5 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 2 May 2024

Kaizer Chiefs
1-5 HT 0-0
Mamelodi Sundowns
📅02/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
South Afrika - Premier League – 2023/2024

Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.75
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
44%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.16
No
65%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
14%
5.29
6+ Goals
6%
33.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.31 — our 40% vs market 36.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
23%
+3.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-5.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.0pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.0pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-7.0pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kaizer Chiefs v Mamelodi Sundowns — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kaizer Chiefs EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 54%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.24/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.91
-7% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +34%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 80%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
15.1 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kaizer Chiefs
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.08 xG 1.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
205 Passes 431
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 2-1 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAF8K
02.09.2023 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
09.08.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 1-0 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAFPSL
21.01.2023 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 0-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
13.08.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 2-0 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs GAFPSL
08.05.2022 Kaizer Chiefs Kaizer Chiefs 1-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL

Kaizer Chiefs 1-5 Mamelodi Sundowns — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kaizer Chiefs
1-5
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.97 xG 2.56
22% Ball Possession 78%
4 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 7
130 Passes 581
70% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 43
4 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns ran out comfortable winners over Kaizer Chiefs 5-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kaizer Chiefs had 22% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 78%, shots finished 4-18, expected goals 0.97 to 2.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kaizer Chiefs and 1.83 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Kaizer Chiefs 1-5 Mamelodi Sundowns in the South Afrika - Premier League on 02/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kaizer Chiefs vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kaizer Chiefs 27%, draw 29%, Mamelodi Sundowns 44%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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