Louisville City 2-0 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 2 May 2025

Louisville City
2-0 HT 0-0
Lexington
📅02/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

Louisville City vs Lexington Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.85
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
2.99
6+ Goals
15%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-4.4pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.2pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Louisville City v Lexington — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
2.03/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.63
+21% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.3 Crosses 25.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.5

Louisville City 2-0 Lexington — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
2-0
AWAY Lexington
1.22 xG 0.82
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
238 Passes 326
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City got the better of Lexington 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Louisville City had 44% of the ball to Lexington's 56%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.22 to 0.82.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Lexington?

Louisville City 2-0 Lexington in the USL Championship on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 56%, draw 21%, Lexington 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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