Baltika Kaliningrad 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 2 Jun 2024

Baltika Kaliningrad
1-2 HT 1-0
Zenit St. Petersburg
📅02/06/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Cup – 2023/2024

Baltika Kaliningrad vs Zenit St. Petersburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
5.4
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
47%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.74
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.27
6+ Goals
10%
21.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
10.85
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
6%
19.25
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
12.05
X/2
17%
3.47
X/X
11%
4.75
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.96
2/X
5%
17.95
Value flag · X/1 at 12.05 — our 15% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
16%
+14.9pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
47%
Away Win
60%
-13.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.2pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baltika Kaliningrad v Zenit St. Petersburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 64%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.09/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.13
+45% / +134% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -43%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 87%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.0

Baltika Kaliningrad vs Zenit St. Petersburg Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.42 xG 1.65
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
262 Passes 564
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.04.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
04.11.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 0-2 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
03.10.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUK
30.08.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-0 HT 1-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK

Baltika Kaliningrad 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
1-2
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Baltika Kaliningrad vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg nicked a narrow win over Baltika Kaliningrad 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Baltika Kaliningrad had 30% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 70%, shots finished 8-21.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Baltika Kaliningrad and 1.25 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of Baltika Kaliningrad vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Baltika Kaliningrad 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Cup on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baltika Kaliningrad vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Baltika Kaliningrad 31%, draw 22%, Zenit St. Petersburg 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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