Köln 1-2 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 2 Aug 2024

Köln
1-2 HT 0-2
Hamburg
📅02/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Köln vs Hamburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.8
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.81
6+ Goals
13%
7.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.67
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
5%
12.25
X/1
18%
4.94
X/2
15%
7.53
X/X
12%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
2/2
14%
4.82
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+6.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.6pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Hamburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +20%
1.24/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.23
-25% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
– Crosses 16.8
– Yellow Cards 2.3

Köln vs Hamburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hamburg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.58 xG 1.60
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
346 Passes 319
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.01.2023 Köln Köln 4-0 HT 2-0 Hamburg Hamburg HAZ
18.01.2022 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AFK
15.04.2019 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
05.11.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL2
20.01.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL1
25.08.2017 Köln Köln 1-3 HT 0-2 Hamburg Hamburg AL1

Köln 1-2 Hamburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
1-2
AWAY Hamburg
2.72 xG 1.66
60% Ball Possession 40%
28 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
463 Passes 296
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
45 Box Touches 12
38 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Köln vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg squeezed past Köln 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Köln at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Köln had 60% of the ball to Hamburg's 40%, shots finished 28-10, expected goals 2.72 to 1.66 — on chances, Köln could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Köln and 1.00 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Köln vs Hamburg?

Köln 1-2 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 02/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Köln 42%, draw 23%, Hamburg 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Köln) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Köln) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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