Nice 3-2 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Jan 2025

Nice
3-2 HT 3-1
Rennes
📅03/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.74
Over Pick
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.83
2-3
40%
1.74
4-5
24%
3.87
6+
10%
17.7
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.87 — our 24% vs market 19.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.34
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
15%
5.06
X/2
15%
6.38
X/X
7%
4.16
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
6%
4.65
2/X
12%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
41%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-5.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+5.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nice The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes The Market 34%
+7% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
1.60/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.38
-4% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 81%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.7 Crosses 14.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nice
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Rennes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.08 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
340 Passes 461
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
13.01.2024 Rennes Rennes 2-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
05.11.2023 Nice Nice 2-0 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
06.05.2023 Nice Nice 2-1 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
02.01.2023 Rennes Rennes 2-1 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
02.04.2022 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
12.12.2021 Rennes Rennes 1-2 HT 0-1 Nice Nice FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nice
3-2
AWAY Rennes
1.50 xG 1.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
327 Passes 406
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nice vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nice nicked a narrow win over Rennes 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nice as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nice had 46% of the ball to Rennes's 54%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.50 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nice and 1.17 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Nice vs Rennes?

Nice 3-2 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nice vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nice 47%, draw 25%, Rennes 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nice), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nice) ✓ Over 2.5
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