Hapoel Tel Aviv 3-1 Ashdod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.68
Over 2.5
52%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.85
No
44%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.17 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
27%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.7pp
44%
BTTS No
50%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Tel Aviv EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ashdod EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.78/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.54
+87% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 71%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
17.2 Crosses 19.2
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Tel Aviv
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Ashdod
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.91 xG 0.56
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
508 Passes 209
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
39 Box Touches 5
37 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.12.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 2-1 HT 1-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv İSR
08.08.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 1-0 HT 0-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv İSRTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Tel Aviv
3-1
AWAY Ashdod
2.80 xG 0.57
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
416 Passes 218
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 4
10 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ashdod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Tel Aviv saw off Ashdod 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hapoel Tel Aviv as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Hapoel Tel Aviv had 63% of the ball to Ashdod's 37%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 2.80 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ashdod led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.50 for Ashdod.

What was the final score of Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ashdod?

Hapoel Tel Aviv 3-1 Ashdod in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ashdod?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hapoel Tel Aviv win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Tel Aviv 42%, draw 26%, Ashdod 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hapoel Tel Aviv), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hapoel Tel Aviv) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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