03/02/2024
·
02:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-1
Ceilandense vs Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
Over
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
No
46%
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
42%
4-5
20%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
44%
Home Win
46%
31%
Draw
29%
24%
Away Win
26%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ceilandense v Gama — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Ceilandense
The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Gama
The Market 29%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-5% /
-5%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-70%
/
+58%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
12
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
272 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
264 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
3.0
POST-MATCH
Ceilandense vs Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Gama squeezed past Ceilandense 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Ceilandense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
What was the final score of Ceilandense vs Gama?
Ceilandense 0-1 Gama in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ceilandense vs Gama?
Before kick-off our model rated a Ceilandense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ceilandense 44%, draw 31%, Gama 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ceilandense), BTTS Yes went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Ceilandense)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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