Serra 5-0 Jaguare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.86
Draw
19%
3.18
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
No Pick
60%
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
43%
4-5
18%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
31%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
55%
Home Win
50%
+4.8pp
19%
Draw
28%
-9.5pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Serra The Market 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Jaguare The Market 25%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +66% / +66%
1.10/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
-33% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +103% / +64%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Serra
5-0
AWAY Jaguare
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Serra vs Jaguare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Serra cruised past Jaguare 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Serra as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Serra had 52% of the ball to Jaguare's 48%, shots finished 13-12.

What was the final score of Serra vs Jaguare?

Serra 5-0 Jaguare in the Brazil - Capixaba on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Serra vs Jaguare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Serra win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Serra 55%, draw 19%, Jaguare 27%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Serra), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Serra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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