Nacional Asuncion 1-4 Club Guarani — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒00:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Club Guarani EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.15/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.01
-10% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
381 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 175 · 64%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Club Guarani
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 4-0 HT 2-0 Club Guarani Club Guarani PAR
29.07.2023 Club Guarani Club Guarani 1-1 HT 1-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
15.05.2023 Club Guarani Club Guarani 2-2 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
04.03.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 0-2 HT 0-0 Club Guarani Club Guarani PAR
17.10.2022 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-0 HT 1-0 Club Guarani Club Guarani PAR
15.08.2022 Club Guarani Club Guarani 1-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
1-4
AWAY Club Guarani
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Club Guarani
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club Guarani swept aside Nacional Asuncion 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional Asuncion at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 62% of the ball to Club Guarani's 38%, shots finished 11-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional Asuncion had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 1.00 for Club Guarani.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Club Guarani?

Nacional Asuncion 1-4 Club Guarani in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Club Guarani?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Asuncion win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 42%, draw 28%, Club Guarani 30%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional Asuncion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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