Gama 1-1 Ceilandia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Brasiliense, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
30%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
53%
4-5
20%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
5%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
60%
-18.5pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.1pp
30%
Away Win
17%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gama The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceilandia The Market 20%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.34/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.00
-21% / +86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +50%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 197 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gama
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Ceilandia
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.03.2023 Gama Gama 0-2 HT 0-1 Ceilandia Ceilandia BRBR
22.01.2022 Ceilandia Ceilandia 3-0 HT 1-0 Gama Gama BRBR
05.05.2021 Ceilandia Ceilandia 2-1 HT 0-1 Gama Gama BRBR
01.05.2021 Gama Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Ceilandia Ceilandia BRBR
26.02.2021 Ceilandia Ceilandia 0-2 HT 0-2 Gama Gama BRBR
POST-MATCH Gama vs Ceilandia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gama and Ceilandia shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Gama at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ceilandia led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Gama and 1.60 for Ceilandia.

What was the final score of Gama vs Ceilandia?

Gama 1-1 Ceilandia in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gama vs Ceilandia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gama 41%, draw 29%, Ceilandia 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gama) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gama) ✓ BTTS Yes
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