03/03/2024
·
15:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-1
Assad vs Mathare United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
Over
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
61%
No
39%
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
46%
4-5
29%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 61% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
46%
Home Win
48%
28%
Draw
23%
25%
Away Win
29%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Assad v Mathare United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Assad
The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY
Mathare United
The Market 33%
+31% /
+31%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+32% /
+32%
2.00/0.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.47/0.75
+48%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+66%
/
+49%
51%
Ball Possession
49%
13
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
6
254 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
312 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Assad vs Mathare United Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Assad
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Mathare United
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Assad vs Mathare United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Assad squeezed past Mathare United 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Assad as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Assad vs Mathare United?
Assad 1-0 Mathare United in the Kenya - Super League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Assad vs Mathare United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Assad win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Assad 46%, draw 28%, Mathare United 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Assad) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Assad)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
KEN2
More Kenya - Super League
3 Mar 2024