Matagalpa 1-1 Export Sebaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.1pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Export Sebaco EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.82/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.74
+27% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matagalpa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Export Sebaco
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 2-0 HT 1-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
04.09.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-2 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
02.04.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 0-0 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
10.02.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 0-3 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
24.10.2022 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-1 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
01.08.2022 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-2 HT 1-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
POST-MATCH Matagalpa vs Export Sebaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matagalpa and Export Sebaco couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Matagalpa at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Matagalpa and 1.00 for Export Sebaco.

What was the final score of Matagalpa vs Export Sebaco?

Matagalpa 1-1 Export Sebaco in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matagalpa vs Export Sebaco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matagalpa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Matagalpa 42%, draw 27%, Export Sebaco 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matagalpa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matagalpa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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